History of statistics and its significance

History of statistics and its significance History of Statistics and its Significance Statistics is a relatively new subject, which branched from Probability Theory and is widely used in areas such as Economics and Astrology. It is a logic and methodology to measure uncertainty and it is used to do inferences on these uncertainties (Stigler, 1986). The history of Statistics can be firstly traced back to the 1600s. John Graunt (1620-1674) could be considered as the pioneer of statistics and as the author of the first book regarding statistics. He published Natural and Political observations on the Bills of Mortality in 1662 whereby he was studying the plague outbreak in London at the time requested by the King. Graunt was asked to come up with a system that would allow them to detect threats of further outbreaks, by keeping records of mortality and causes of death and making an estimation of the population. By forming the life table, Graunt discovered that statistically, the ratio of male to females are almost equal. Then in 1666, he collected data and started to exami ne life expectancies. All of this was fundamental as he was arguably the first to create a condensed life table from large data and was able to do some analysis on it. In addition, this is widely used in life insurance today, showing the importance and significance of Graunts work (Verduin, 2009). Another reason why this is significant is because of his ability in demonstrating the value of data collection (Stigler, 1986). Then in 1693, Edmond Halley extended Graunts ideas and formed the first mortality table that statistically made the relationship between age and death rates. Again, this is used in life insurance (Verduin, 2009). Another contributor to the formation of statistics is Abraham De Moivre (1667-1823). He was the first person to identify the properties of the normal curve and in 1711, introduced the notion of statistical independence (Verduin, 2009). In 1724, De Moivre studied mortality statistics and laid down foundations of the theory of annuities, inspired by the work of Halley. This is significant as annuities are widely used in the Finance industry today, in particular, when forming actuarial tables in life insurance. De Moivre then went on to talk about the idea of the normal distribution which can be used to approximate the binomial distribution (OConnor and Robertson, 2004). William Playfair (1759-1823) was the person who invented statistical graphics, which included the line graph and the bar graph chart in 1786 and the pie chart in 1801. He believed that charts were a better way to represent data and he was driven to this invention by a lack of data. This was a milestone as these graphical representations are used everywhere today, the most notable being the time-series graph, which is a graph containing many data points measured at successive uniform intervals over a period of time. These graphs can be used to examine data such as shares, and could be used to predict future data (Robyn 1978). Adolphe Quetlet (1796-1874) was the first person to apply probability and statistics to Social Sciences in 1835. He was interested in studying about human characteristics and suggested that the law of errors, which are commonly used in Astronomy, could be applied when studying people and through this, assumptions or predictions could be in regards to physical features and intellectual features of a person. Through Quetlets studies, he discovered that the distribution of certain characteristics when he made a diagram of it was in a shape of a bell curve. This was a significant discovery as Quetlet later went on to form properties of the normal distribution curve, which is a vital concept in Statistics today. Using this concept of average man, Quetlet used this to examine other social issues such as crime rates and marriage rates. He is also well known for the coming up with a formula called the Quetlet Index, or more commonly known as Body Mass Index, which is an indication or measure for obesity. This is still used today and you could find out your BMI by calculating. If you get an index of more than 30, it means the person is officially obese (OConnor and Robertson, 2006). Other members who made little but significance contributions to Statistics are Carl Gauss and Florence Nightingale. Gauss was the first person who played around with the least squares estimation method when he was interested in astronomy and attempted to predict the position of a planet. He later proved this method by assuming the errors are normally distributed. The method of least squares is widely used today, in Astronomy for example, in order to minimise the error and improve the accuracy of results or calculations (OConnor and Robertson, 1996). It was also the most commonly used method before 1827 when trying to combine inconsistent equations (Stigler, 1986). Nightingale was inspired by Quetlets work on statistical graphics and produced a chart detailing the deaths of soldiers where she worked. She later went on to analyse that state and care of medical facilities in India. This was significant as Nightingale applied statistics to health problems and this led to the improvement of medical healthcare. Her important works were recognised as became the first female to be a member of the Royal Statistical Society (Cohen, 1984). One of the greatest contributors was Francis Galton (1822-1911) who helped create a statistical revolution which laid foundations for future statisticians like Karl Pearson and Charles Spearman (Stigler, 1986). He was related to Charles Darwin and had many interests, such as Eugenics and Anthropology. He came up with a number of vital concepts, including the regression, standard deviation and correlation, which came about when Galton was studying sweet peas. He discovered that the successive sweet peas were of different sizes but regressed towards the mean size and the distribution of their parents (Gavan Tredoux, 2007). He later went on to work with the idea of correlation when he was studying the heights of parents and the parents children when they reach adulthood, where he made a diagram of his findings and found an obvious correlation between the two. He then performed a few other experiments and came to the conclusion that the index of the correlation was an indication to the d egree in which the two variables were related to one another. His studies were significant as they are all fundamental in Statistics today and these methods are used in many areas for data analysis, especially with extracting meaningful information between different factors (OConnor and Robertson, 2003). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900 Stephen M Stigelr Publisher: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, March 1, 1990 p1, 4, 40, 266 http://www.leidenuniv.nl/fsw/verduin/stathist/stathist.htm A short History of Probability and Statistics Kees Verduin Last Updated: March 2009 Last Accessed: 02/04/2010 http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/De_Moivre.html The MacTutor History of Mathematics archive Article by: J J OConnor and E F Robertson Copyright June 2004 Last Accessed: 05/04/2010 The American Statistician Volume: 32, No: 1 Quantitative graphics in statistics: A brief history James R. Beniger and Dorothy L. Robyn p1-11 http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/~history/Biographies/Quetelet.html The MacTutor History of Mathematics archive Article by: J J OConnor and E F Robertson Copyright August 2006 Last Accessed: 06/04/2010 http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Gauss.html The MacTutor History of Mathematics archive Article by: J J OConnor and E F Robertson Copyright December 1996 Last Accessed: 06/04/2010 Scientific American 250 Florence Nightingale I. Bernard Cohen March 1984, p128-37/p98-107depending on country of sale http://galton.org/ Francis Galton Edited and Maintained by: Gavan Tredoux Last Updated: 12/11/07 (according to the update in News section) Last Accessed: 07/04/2010 http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Galton.html The MacTutor History of Mathematics archive Article by: J J OConnor and E F Robertson Copyright October 2003 Last Accessed: 07/04/2010

Use of Mise en Scene in the Film Yellow Earth :: Movie Film Essays

Use of Mise en Scene in the Film Yellow Earth The film â€Å"Yellow Earth† is the sad tale of a girl being forced to follow her â€Å"fate.† She sees an opportunity to escape in a foreigner, a soldier from the south. In this film, director Chen Kaige and cinematographer Zhang Yimou create windows into their characters. Several scenes are made more significant because of the use of mise en scene. This technique allows the viewer to see everything that happens during the course of the scene. The most impactful scene is perhaps when the soldier Gu is first brought into their home. Although the camera will show different shots, time is still continuous. It is not an interruption and is only moving to provide the audience with a better view. The continuousness of time is important because the audience knows everything that is occurring between the characters. The viewer hears their conversations and their silences. This use if mise en scene allows the viewer to get a sense of the tension between Gu and the family (as he is a newcomer), and between Cuiqiao and the others. There are two main angles that Yimou uses in this scene. One is centered on Gu and the other is centered on Cuiqiao, from slightly to the right of Gu’s perspective. Whenever the shot is facing Gu, it is at his level. Everything is level with his camera angle and straight with his life. Cuiqiao’s angle, however, is looking down on her. This is reflective of her current emotional state. She is sorrowful and repressed. Whenever a character performs an important action, the camera shows them. The first time that Cuiqiao and Han Han are spoken to, they become visible. Also, we see Cuiqiao’s reactions when they are important to her characterization. Gu speaks somewhat about the South and how free and wonderful it is. Cuiqiao’s curiosity is expressed on her face. The audience also sees Cuiqiao forgetting about what she is doing with the bellows.

Machiavelli: The Realist Essay

Political realism did not become a popular concept until it was discussed by Niccolà ² Machiavelli, making him one of the most influential philosophers. According to another philosopher, Francis Bacon, Machiavelli was â€Å"the founder of a new, objective science of politics, concerned not with what should be, but with what is, not with hopes and fears, but with practical realities† (Wootton XXXVII). Machiavelli’s handbook for princes, titled The Prince, takes the world as it is and gives advice through the discussion of real world examples. Max Lerner, the deceased American journalist, once stated, â€Å"May I venture a guess as to the reason why we still shudder slightly at Machiavelli’s name†¦ It is our recognition that the realities he describes are realities; that men, whether in politics, in business, or in private life, do not act according to their professions of virtue.† When people read Machiavelli’s text they are astounded by some of his remarks. However, he persistently uses examples to validate that what he is saying. Although people may not want to accept his comments, he is merely making observations. Throughout his handbook, it is made evident that Machiavelli is indeed a realist. Throughout his handbook, Machiavelli makes it evident that he is indeed a realist through his examination of why a commitment to integrity and virtue is not possible for successful leadership, but deception, cruelty, and war are essential. The essential perception of reporting what actually occurs is expressed by Machiavelli. In explaining his purpose for writing The Prince, he states, â€Å"But my hope is to write a book that will be useful, at least to those who read it intelligently, and so I thought it sensible to go straight to a discussion of how things are in real life and not waste time with a discussion of an imaginary world† (Machiavelli 48). Unlike most other philosophers, Machiavelli does not believe in creating a utopia. He prefers to state the truth and make conclusions based on real events, which is exactly what he does throughout the text. According to Machiavelli: Many authors have constructed imaginary republics and principalities that have never existed in practice and never could; for the gap between how people actually behave and how they ought to behave is so great that anyone who ignores everyday reality in order to live up to an ideal will soon discover he has been taught how to destroy himself, not how to preserve himself. (Machiavelli 48) Machiavelli uses examples from the present time as well as the past to illustrate his advice for the princes. For example, Machiavelli refers to a contemporary Italian prince, whom he feels is a model of the ideal prince, on several occasions. His name is Cesare Borgia, the son of Pope Alexander VI. One time Machiavelli refers to him is when discussing individuals who acquire principalities through fortune. Instead of creating a hypothetical situation in which a person receives principalities through luck and making up possible outcomes, Machiavelli directly cites Borgia who received land from his father. He asserts, â€Å"Cesare Borgia, who was called Duke Valentino by the common people, acquired his state thanks to the good fortune of his father, and when that came to an end he lost it† (Machiavelli 22). By using real occurrences, Machiavelli’s advice becomes more convincing. The people know that he is basing his guidance on events which have actually taken place, and therefore they accept more of what he has to say. Machiavelli’s criticism of human nature is infamous for the obvious reason that he bashes humans. The words he uses to describe humans all have a negative connotation. While they may seem incredibly harsh, he is only stating the truth. Machiavelli explains, â€Å"For of men one can, in general, say this: They are ungrateful, fickle, deceptive and deceiving, avoiders of danger, eager to gain† (Machiavelli 52). While some may argue that they do not possess these negative characteristics, Machiavelli disagrees arguing that while they may not show them, they are capable of them. He continues on to describe humans as being self-preserved. â€Å"As long as you serve their interests, they are devoted to you. They promise you their blood, their possessions, their lives, and their children, as I said before, so long as you seem to have no need of them. But as soon as you need help, they turn against you† (Machiavelli 52). People are willing to give up all that they have, but when the time comes to actually give their belongings away, they run away. This assumption that humans are being of pitiless self-interest follows with political realism. Machiavelli furthers his negative remarks about human beings when he discusses virtue. Based on Machiavelli’s use of the word virtue, he seems to be referring to qualities that would earn praise. He states several praiseworthy characteristics that most humans would think are beneficial to possess. Machiavelli continues pointing out: Now I know everyone will agree that if a ruler could have all the good qualities I have listed and none of the bad ones, then this would be an excellent state of affairs. But one cannot have all the good qualities, nor always act in a praiseworthy fashion, for we do not live in an ideal world. (Machiavelli 48) While his point is intended for princes, it can be applied to humans as well. His earlier case about humans being self-absorbed and fickle can apply here as well. He acknowledges that it would be better for society if everyone acted virtuously, but it is not an ideal world. Therefore, since not everyone can possess only good qualities, he turns to a blatant reality that people must be deceiving. They need to pretend to have positive characteristics in order to fool those who oppose them. He believes the good traits are more advantageous if a person merely seems to possess them. A person should seem to be compassionate, trustworthy, sympathetic, honest, and religious instead of actually being those things. Machiavelli makes clear that virtue is not possible for a prince to be successful. He emphasizes the need for deception, and then moves on to discuss cruelty. Machiavelli explains that while it is good to be loved by your people, it is better to be feared. This is because men who love you will remain loyal until they fear their interests are at stake and run away. If the men are afraid of you, then they will not be able to run away because their fear will restrain them. Machiavelli states, â€Å"†¦for it is impossible to keep an army united and ready for action without acquiring a reputation for cruelty† (Machiavelli 52). If a prince wants control and order, then he needs to be feared. According to Machiavelli, cruelty is the way to achieve this goal and is essential if a prince wishes to maintain his power. The third necessity for a prince to remain a leader is to be powerful during war. Machiavelli, who clearly believes it is important to refer to the past as a guide, advises rulers to read history books and study the actions of men who succeeded. He declares, â€Å"[A ruler] should see how they conducted themselves when at war, study why they won some battles and lost others, so he will know what to imitate and what to avoid† (Machiavelli 47). By learning about past leaders, a prince can imitate the actions of historical figures who are admirable in order to make himself better. Machiavelli’s emphasis on war may come from the fact that, during this time, Italy is in pieces, and he wishes for it to be united. He encourages rulers to â€Å"only think of military matters† and states that â€Å"in time of peace he should be even more occupied with them than in time of war† (Machiavelli 46). A prince should constantly be a step ahead of his enemies, and, therefore, needs to persistently focus on how he can be better prepared for war. By having a good army and a set plan, a ruler is able to maintain his power. Although many people criticize Machiavelli for his outrageous political realism, he was discussing the truth about reality. Some people may see it as harsh, but sometimes the truth hurts. Machiavelli states, â€Å"So it is necessary for a ruler, if he wants to hold on to power, to learn how not to be good, and to know when it is and when it is not necessary to use this knowledge† (Machiavelli 48). He explains in depth why honesty and virtue are not factors in determining a prince’s success. Instead, a prince needs to be deceiving, cruel, and a powerful military ruler in order to keep his power. Works Cited Machiavelli, Niccolà ². The Prince. Trans. David Wootton. Indianapolis: Hackett, 1995. Print.

Identity in Salman Rushdie essays

Identity in Salman Rushdie essays Examine the construction of identity in Salman Rushdies Midnights Children. Colonialism is the consolidation of imperial power through the attempt to govern lands that are now occupied. Postcolonial literature sets out to oppose the colonialist perspective. They develop a perspective that retrieves states of marginality and is concerned with mans quest for his identity. Postcolonial theories relate the quest of their individual hero or heroines to the past of their lives. Salman Rushdie born in an Indian Muslim family is a postcolonial writer. After graduating Rushdie returned home to Pakistan where his parents had moved, whilst there he felt a sense of alienation having been so long away from his cultural roots that he decided to return to England. This is a feeling that many of the postcolonial writers identify with. Many of these writers like Salman Rushdie, Sunetra Gupta and Rukhsana Ahmed are caught in between two cultures that in many cases are very contrasting. It is very difficult for these writers to adapt to both cultures and because of his they find it difficult to construct their identity. This is a problem that the narrator Saleem Sinai faces in Salman Rushdies novel Midnights Children. The search for a country with secular ideals is one of the themes of Midnights Children. Rushdie makes an attempt to explore some of the darkness of that experience by relating the family history of Saleem to the history of Indias freedom struggle. Saleems search for identity parallels to and is directly connected with the history of a nation that is constructing itself. Saleem was born at the hour that ends the British Raj, sustains the identities of a narrator and becomes the consciousness of the whole country. Saleem assumes many identities he is a distinctive mixture of the creation of Indian culture and that of Islamic tradi...